Expectancy, Edge, and Why Most Traders Think About This Wrong The formula is correct. The world it assumes does not exist. And the difference between those two facts determines whether a programme compounds or collapses. Previous: Foundation 3: What Diversification...
What Diversification Actually Does (and What It Cannot Do) Classical diversification measures correlation and hopes it holds. The Outlier Hunter pursues structural independence, because correlation is the one thing you cannot rely on when you need it most. Previous: Foundation...
Why Position Sizing Is the Most Important Decision You Make Your entry tells you where to play. Your position size determines whether you survive long enough to find out if you were right. Previous: Foundation 1: What a System Actually...
Traditional models keep failing practitioners. Here is why complexity theory offers something more honest, and more useful. Every practitioner who has survived a genuine market crisis has felt it: the uncomfortable gap between what the model said and what the...
“The Whipsaw Resumes. Energy Spikes, Metals Unwind, and the Barometer Holds Strong at 50“ Trend Following Weekly Report This was the week the whipsaw resumed. Market pricing reflected a renewed risk premium around the Strait of Hormuz, with reports indicating...
Why position sizing in pure trend following is determinate, once the domain of the question is properly drawn. Carlo Zarattini published a thoughtful piece earlier this week on position sizing in trend following. He compared three approaches against the same...
The Mechanics of Complexity: Why Markets Evolve the Way They Do A six-part series on the forces behind Complex Adaptive Systems, and what they mean for how you trade. Watch the Episode SERIES OVERVIEW This Dispatch walks through A Journey...
What a System Actually Is Not a collection of rules. Not a set of indicators. A process, complete and explicit, that runs without interpretation, without override, and without the need to know what happens next. Previous: Introduction: Every Outlier Begins...
Every Outlier Begins Somewhere Introducing the Foundations Series: ten essays on the concepts that systematic trend following depends on, written for the reader who wants to understand before they commit. Next: Foundation 1: What a System Actually Is There is...
The economy doesn’t run like clockwork. Understanding why changes everything about how we invest, plan, and respond to uncertainty. Picture a clock. Every gear meshes with the next in a precise sequence. Pull one lever and the mechanism responds in...
