Most traders think of crisis events as rare interruptions in an otherwise stable world. The language reinforces this belief. We speak of crashes, panics, and shocks as if they sit outside the normal behaviour of markets. A trading career of...
Financial markets move through alternating states. There are long stretches of calm where volatility remains contained and returns progress in small increments. Then there are rough cycles where volatility expands, correlations collapse, and dislocations dominate price behaviour. Each environment rewards...
The Myth of the Bell Curve Finance has long worshipped the bell curve, the elegant Gaussian model that promises predictability, control, and order.It tells us that most market moves are small, extreme ones are rare, and risk can be tamed...
Expectancy is the map. The path is survival — and only those who can survive it endure. Expanding on Expectancy vs. Survival In our recent post, Expectancy vs. Survival — Why the Outlier Hunter Thinks Differently, we challenged the industry’s...
Ask most traders how to measure an edge, and they’ll point you to expectancy: Expectancy = (Win% × Average Win) – (Loss% × Average Loss) It feels neat, logical, even scientific. If the number is positive, you supposedly have an...
