“Two investors can run the same trades. Only one of them had to be right about anything.” Compounding is one of those ideas in finance that sounds simple until you actually live through it. A return is not earned in...
“Memory does not live in minds alone. It lives wherever the past quietly limits what can happen next.” Markets are often described as forgetful. Participants change. Capital turns over. Positions are closed. News is absorbed and replaced by new...
Expectancy is the map. The path is survival — and only those who can survive it endure. Expanding on Expectancy vs. Survival In our recent post, Expectancy vs. Survival — Why the Outlier Hunter Thinks Differently, we challenged the industry’s...
Path Dependence and the Non-Ergodic Nature of Markets Most of the analytical machinery used in mainstream finance rests on an assumption so foundational that it is rarely examined: the assumption of ergodicity. It is worth examining. The ergodic assumption is...
