The Coupled Spectrum Sixty-eight markets. One system. The coupling never switches off. Episode 1 proved that the near-zero autocorrelation is a lie. Beneath it, every market oscillates between periods where moves persist and periods where they chop back and forth....
Zero Doesn’t Mean Nothing How we looked beneath the most quoted statistic in finance and found a machine that should not exist. Phase 1 of this series proved that markets have memory. Across sixty-eight futures contracts spanning eight asset classes...
Before You Begin The context, the language, and the question that structures everything that follows. What This Series Is This is a nine-episode investigation into how financial markets actually behave, tested against how they are supposed to behave. The investigation...
Eight articles. Thirty-eight years of science. One verdict. Over the past two weeks, we published an eight-part series that asked a question the mainstream of finance has been unable to answer for decades: why do trends exist? We did not...
What Complexity Economics Means for Your Trading Eight principles from thirty-eight years of Santa Fe science, translated into the language of portfolio construction, risk management, and the practice of following trends I began this series with a question. Why do...
The Economy on a Computer From a single artificial stock to entire economies: how the institutions that regulate the world’s financial systems are abandoning the equilibrium framework, and what that means for the strategies built on its failure On February...
The Artificial Stock Market When physicists built a market from scratch and it spontaneously produced every pattern that trend followers know by heart, it proved something profound about where returns come from It began with a bet. In 1989, at...
The Physicist Who Beat the House Twice From roulette wheels to Wall Street to simulating entire economies, and what one physicist’s journey reveals about the limits of prediction and the power of responsive strategy The idea of using physics to...
All Systems Will Be Gamed Why adaptive agents always find the cracks, why equilibrium thinking cannot see them coming, and why the programme that assumes boundaries will break is the one that survives There is a general rule in social...
When Small Things Become Unstoppable How Brian Arthur’s most dangerous idea explained why markets trend, and why the profession tried to bury it In 1983, W. Brian Arthur finished a paper that he believed would change economics. He was not...
