Why Position Sizing Is the Most Important Decision You Make Your entry tells you where to play. Your position size determines whether you survive long enough to find out if you were right. Previous: Foundation 1: What a System Actually...
The Mechanics of Complexity: Why Markets Evolve the Way They Do A six-part series on the forces behind Complex Adaptive Systems, and what they mean for how you trade. Watch the Episode SERIES OVERVIEW This Dispatch walks through A Journey...
What a System Actually Is Not a collection of rules. Not a set of indicators. A process, complete and explicit, that runs without interpretation, without override, and without the need to know what happens next. Previous: Introduction: Every Outlier Begins...
Every Outlier Begins Somewhere Introducing the Foundations Series: ten essays on the concepts that systematic trend following depends on, written for the reader who wants to understand before they commit. Next: Foundation 1: What a System Actually Is There is...
The Escalator and the Elevator Why long trades and short trades require independent, asymmetric trend models, and the structural mechanism within Fractal Market Theory that explains why. This appendix accompanies Phase 2 of The Feedback Engine series. Episode 8 introduced...
The Zero Beneath the Zero What we found when we looked beneath the most quoted statistic in finance, and what it means for how we understand markets. The most quoted statistic in quantitative finance is the autocorrelation of daily returns....
The Verdict The zero is the most important number in finance. Beneath it lies a system built from feedback, shaped by policy, and running hotter than the textbooks allow. This series began with a number. The near-zero autocorrelation that appears...
The Escalator and the Elevator Why long trades and short trades require independent calibration, and what the data reveals when you test it. Episode 7 ended with a question. Three forces explain the decline in simple trend-following returns: regime suppression,...
The Power of Process: Why Markets Are Not What You Think They Are A five-part series that builds the case for a completely different way of seeing financial markets. The argument is not subtle. Neither are the implications. Watch the...
The Paradox The feedback structure persists. Simple trend-following returns do not. This paradox is the most important finding in the series. Its resolution is more nuanced than anyone expected. This episode was supposed to be a celebration. Six episodes of...
