The Difference Between Backtesting and Reality A backtest is a necessary tool and an insufficient one. The trader who mistakes it for proof has not tested their system. They have tested their assumptions about their system on data that cannot...
What a Drawdown Actually Means A drawdown is not a verdict on the system. It is a structural feature of every honest programme. How you interpret it determines whether you survive long enough to find out what you are actually...
Why Systematic Beats Discretionary: The Evidence The argument for systematic trading is not that humans are poor at judgment. It is that markets reliably produce conditions in which the human running a validated process feels compelled to override it, and...
The Role of Noise: Why Quiet Markets Are Dangerous Noise is not the enemy of the systematic trend follower. Silence is. Understanding the difference changes how you read every market condition you will ever encounter. Previous: Foundation 4: Expectancy, Edge,...
Expectancy, Edge, and Why Most Traders Think About This Wrong The formula is correct. The world it assumes does not exist. And the difference between those two facts determines whether a programme compounds or collapses. Previous: Foundation 3: What Diversification...
What Diversification Actually Does (and What It Cannot Do) Classical diversification measures correlation and hopes it holds. The Outlier Hunter pursues structural independence, because correlation is the one thing you cannot rely on when you need it most. Previous: Foundation...
Why Position Sizing Is the Most Important Decision You Make Your entry tells you where to play. Your position size determines whether you survive long enough to find out if you were right. Previous: Foundation 1: What a System Actually...
The Mechanics of Complexity: Why Markets Evolve the Way They Do A six-part series on the forces behind Complex Adaptive Systems, and what they mean for how you trade. Watch the Episode SERIES OVERVIEW This Dispatch walks through A Journey...
What a System Actually Is Not a collection of rules. Not a set of indicators. A process, complete and explicit, that runs without interpretation, without override, and without the need to know what happens next. Previous: Introduction: Every Outlier Begins...
Every Outlier Begins Somewhere Introducing the Foundations Series: ten essays on the concepts that systematic trend following depends on, written for the reader who wants to understand before they commit. Next: Foundation 1: What a System Actually Is There is...
