Eight articles. Thirty-eight years of science. One verdict. Over the past two weeks, we published an eight-part series that asked a question the mainstream of finance has been unable to answer for decades: why do trends exist? We did not...
What Complexity Economics Means for Your Trading Eight principles from thirty-eight years of Santa Fe science, translated into the language of portfolio construction, risk management, and the practice of following trends I began this series with a question. Why do...
The Economy on a Computer From a single artificial stock to entire economies: how the institutions that regulate the world’s financial systems are abandoning the equilibrium framework, and what that means for the strategies built on its failure On February...
The Artificial Stock Market When physicists built a market from scratch and it spontaneously produced every pattern that trend followers know by heart, it proved something profound about where returns come from It began with a bet. In 1989, at...
The Physicist Who Beat the House Twice From roulette wheels to Wall Street to simulating entire economies, and what one physicist’s journey reveals about the limits of prediction and the power of responsive strategy The idea of using physics to...
All Systems Will Be Gamed Why adaptive agents always find the cracks, why equilibrium thinking cannot see them coming, and why the programme that assumes boundaries will break is the one that survives There is a general rule in social...
When Small Things Become Unstoppable How Brian Arthur’s most dangerous idea explained why markets trend, and why the profession tried to bury it In 1983, W. Brian Arthur finished a paper that he believed would change economics. He was not...
The Bar Problem That Explains Every Market Why predictive strategies destroy themselves in reflexive markets, and why the edge that feeds on them never decays There is a bar on Canyon Road in Santa Fe, New Mexico, called El Farol....
Do Anything You Like, Providing It Is Not Conventional How a group of renegade scientists dropped the most sacred assumption in economics, and accidentally explained why trend following works I have spent most of my career trying to answer a...
