February 2026 asked the toughest question in trend following: can systematic programs deliver when conditions deteriorate sharply mid-month? The answer was an emphatic yes.
All three major benchmarks posted gains for a second consecutive month, with the TTU Trend Following Index advancing 4.61 percent, the SG Trend Index gaining 3.90 percent, and the BTOP50 rising 3.48 percent. The S&P 500, by contrast, declined 0.76 percent, providing the clearest illustration of trend following’s diversification value in 2026 to date.
But the monthly figures only tell half the story. Beneath the surface, February delivered some of the most violent sector rotation of the year. The TTU Trend Barometer collapsed from 68 to 43 by mid-month as energy positions reversed, soft commodities remained in disarray, and US equities weakened. For two weeks, the favourable regime that had defined January appeared to be unravelling.
Then conditions shifted. Silver surged over twelve percent in a single week. Platinum and gold extended to multi-year highs. Heating oil broke out with back-to-back gains exceeding seven percent. Bonds resumed their rally. Grains posted a fourth consecutive positive week. The Barometer vaulted from 43 back to 61, reclaiming the favourable zone with conviction. By month-end, performance and conditions were once again aligned.
The Serenity Top 5 Selection Method was the standout, delivering a 7.18 percent gain and bringing its trailing twelve-month return to 21.27 percent. The year-to-date return of 15.18 percent through just two months represents one of the strongest starts in the composite’s history.
The trailing twelve-month figures across all benchmarks now tell a compelling story: the SG Trend Index at 14.91 percent, the TTU TF Index at 12.88 percent, and the BTOP50 at 10.74 percent. These represent a dramatic acceleration from where the indices entered the year.
February’s message is one of validation. Diversified systematic programs can navigate violent rotation, capturing gains from metals, energy, grains, and bonds even as individual sectors experience sharp reversals. When equities decline and trend conditions remain constructive, the value proposition of trend following is at its most visible.
The full report, including detailed index analysis, the intra-month Barometer journey, Top 10 rankings, and the Serenity Top 5 performance breakdown, is available now on Top Traders Unplugged.
Read the full February 2026 Trend Following Performance Report here.
Want the theoretical foundation for why trend following works?
The Fractals of Finance: Determinism, Adaptation and the Geometry of Markets
The book explores the full architecture of feedback, fat tails, and fractal structure in financial markets, and what it means for how we trade, invest, and understand risk.
Available now on Amazon in paperback, hardcover, and Kindle.
Want a practical field manual for trading trends and capturing outliers?
The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide: A Field Manual for Hunting Outliers adapts the timeless principles of the original Turtle traders into a systematic, rules-based approach for modern markets. Co-authored with Adam Havryliv.
Available now on Amazon in paperback, hardcover, and Kindle.