This Week in Trend: 20th March 2026

Energy surging. Metals collapsing. Equities sliding further. And the barometer holds its ground with rising momentum.

The third week of March delivered the most dramatic sector divergence of the year so far. Energy extended its extraordinary run for a third consecutive week. Metals did not merely retreat, they collapsed. Equities declined across every major market for a third straight week. And the TTU Barometer, absorbing all of it, held at 57 percent. Above the threshold. Remaining strong. With a rate of change that shifted from Falling Weakly to Rising Weakly. The trend environment is not just holding. It is quietly improving beneath the surface.

Heating oil led all 49 assets at 14.79 percent. Crude oil Brent gained 8.77 percent. Gasoline RBOB advanced 8.05 percent. The energy sector averaged 5.60 percent for a third consecutive positive week. Three weeks of broad petroleum gains are now generating high-conviction multi-week trend signals across all standard timeframes. This is no longer building momentum. This is confirmed trend structure.

But the rest of the market told a story of historic violence.

Silver crashed 14.36 percent, the second-worst performer across all 49 assets. Gold fell 9.62 percent, its largest single-week loss in the current data set. Copper lost 6.64 percent. Palladium declined 8.51 percent. Platinum dropped 3.51 percent. Every metal finished sharply lower for a third consecutive week. The sector averaged -8.53 percent, the worst performance of any sector this week by a wide margin. The February advance is being reversed with extraordinary speed and conviction. Three consecutive weeks of losses are now generating short signals in precious metals on most systematic timeframes.

Orange juice collapsed 18.97 percent, the single worst performer across all 49 assets. A violent spike followed by an equally violent reversal in the space of two weeks. A painful stop-out for any systematic strategy that entered long on the prior week’s breakout.

Equities extended their decline for a third consecutive week. The DAX fell 4.47 percent. The Nikkei 225 dropped 3.82 percent. Euro Stoxx 50 lost 3.70 percent. The S&P 500 declined 1.90 percent, breaking below the 6000 level on the weekly chart. The DJIA fell 2.33 percent. The Nasdaq 100 lost 2.05 percent. Three straight weeks of declines across every major index. The negative signals are strengthening with each passing week.

Grains broke their six-week positive streak. Soybeans fell 5.22 percent. Oats dropped 4.85 percent. Wheat declined 3.01 percent. Seven of eight grain contracts finished lower. One negative week does not break a trend, but the breadth of this week’s losses warrants close monitoring. Soybean meal was the sole exception, gaining 1.64 percent.

Currencies provided welcome diversification, the sector reversing two weeks of losses and averaging 0.27 percent. The euro gained 0.96 percent. Sterling added 0.62 percent. Coffee surged 8.63 percent, the third-best performer across all 49 assets, a dramatic reversal after months of decline. Sugar gained 9.26 percent. These are nascent signals, but constructive ones.

The TTU Trend Barometer held at 57 percent. Strong. Rising Weakly. That is the most important number in this week’s report. Metals collapsed at an historic rate. Equities fell across every major market. Grains reversed. Orange juice imploded. And yet the barometer, absorbing all of it, held above 55 percent with momentum that is now pointing higher. The reason is energy. Three consecutive weeks of extraordinary petroleum gains are generating genuine multi-week trend signals, and those signals are providing the breadth that sustains the strong classification despite the carnage elsewhere. The shift from Falling Weakly to Rising Weakly is a meaningful positive development: trend breadth is actively expanding, not merely holding. At 57 percent the environment remains in strong territory. The rising rate of change supports the case for continued systematic positioning.

The SG Trend Index stands at -1.83 percent MTD and 6.81 percent YTD. The metals collapse overwhelmed energy’s positive contribution this week, pushing the month-to-date figure further negative. But the year-to-date foundation built during January and February remains substantial. March is a corrective month so far, not a reversal of the year’s positive trajectory.

This was not a subtle week. It was a week of extremes. The most dramatic sector divergence of 2026. Energy at its most powerful. Metals at their most vulnerable. The barometer holding its ground while chaos unfolded around it.

For systematic trend followers, the signals are sharpening. Energy long positioning is generating its strongest multi-week signals of the year. Metals long positions are under severe pressure and shorter-timeframe systems are beginning to generate short signals, particularly in silver and palladium. Grains require monitoring after breaking their streak. Currencies are turning constructive. Coffee and sugar are generating early reversal signals worth watching. The barometer at 57 percent with rising momentum supports continued systematic positioning with disciplined risk management. The strong environment is where trend following is designed to perform.

Energy surges for a third week. Metals collapse. Equities slide further. Grains break their streak. But the barometer holds at 57 percent with rising momentum. The trend environment is stronger than the week’s headlines suggest. Discipline and patience remain the edge.

TTU Trend Barometer: 57 percent, held from 57 (Rising Weakly)

SG Trend Index: -1.83 percent MTD | 6.81 percent YTD

Top Movers (Up): Heating oil, sugar, coffee, crude oil Brent Top Movers (Down): Orange juice, silver, gold, palladium

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