Introduction
Systematic trend following performance in February 2026 delivered another exceptional month as metals exploded and trends surged. The benchmark gained +4.01 percent, marking the second consecutive month above four percent. Two months into 2026, the trend-following community has built an exceptional start to the year.
The trailing 12-month return surged to +13.72 percent, a dramatic improvement from January’s +2.65 percent as the rolling window captured recent strength and released weaker prior-year months. The five-year CAGR settled at 6.28 percent with the MAR ratio holding at 0.37. The universe remained stable at 109 programs.
February unfolded across three distinct phases. An early pullback in energy, driven by a violent reversal in natural gas, weighed on the opening week. Trend conditions cooled through mid-month as equity markets wobbled. Then came the decisive recovery: metals ignited with particular force in the final week. Silver surged +12.42 percent in a single week, platinum gained +9.08 percent, and gold extended its historic advance above $5,296, reaching fresh all-time highs for the fourth consecutive week.
Leadership was emphatic. Superfund Capital Management’s Green Silver SICAV dominated the month with a gain of +29.19 percent, followed by Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program at +21.37 percent and Melissinos Trading’s Eupatrid Commodity at +14.68 percent. The metals breakout rewarded those who held positions through mid-month turbulence.
The month’s narrative reinforced a core principle of systematic trend following: recoveries, when they come, come quickly. Allocators who endured the mid-month drawdown and remained positioned were rewarded with strong final results.
Welcome to Rising Stars and Trend Titans, where we track 109 globally diversified, rules-based programs with at least five years of verified performance. This month’s edition examines how managers navigated February’s three-phase structure and which approaches captured the metals explosion.
Criteria for Inclusion
These criteria distinguish durable systematic processes from short-term performance artefacts.
The Rising Stars and Trend Titans report evaluates globally diversified systematic trend-following programs that meet clear standards of durability, transparency, and relevance.
Programs included must satisfy the following criteria:
- Validated Track Record — A minimum of five years of performance history to ensure exposure to multiple market regimes.
- Global Diversification — Demonstrated exposure across equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies.
- Systematic Framework — Fully rules-based execution, removing discretionary decision-making.
- Consistent Reporting — Verified monthly performance sourced from the Nilsson Hedge Database.
- Balanced Scope — Inclusion of both established managers and emerging programs that meet the five-year threshold.
For a full listing of the programs featured in this month’s report, click here.
Systematic Trend Following Performance Overview — February 2026
February delivered another powerful month for the systematic trend-following universe. The benchmark, representing 109 reporting programs, gained +4.01 percent. Combined with January’s +4.16 percent, the two-month start to 2026 has produced a cumulative gain exceeding +8 percent.
Risk metrics held steady. Maximum drawdown edged slightly higher to 16.91 percent, the MAR ratio settled at 0.37, and skew remained near neutral at -0.03. Correlation across programs stayed elevated, consistent with a synchronised trend environment.
The VAMI extended its advance following the late-month metals explosion. Early turbulence gave way to decisive recovery as silver, platinum, and gold surged to close the month. The strongest program gained +29.19 percent, while the weakest declined -3.84 percent. Dispersion remained elevated with a standard deviation of 4.08.
This pattern reflects an environment where patience through turbulence determined outcomes.
Summary: February tested the trend-following community with early energy reversals and mid-month cooling, then rewarded those who remained positioned with an explosive metals rally. Discipline mattered.
Top 10 Trend Following Performance: February 2026
February rewarded metals exposure and the patience to hold through mid-month turbulence. Leadership clustered among programs positioned for the precious metals breakout that defined the final week.
At the top of the leaderboard, Superfund Capital Management’s Green Silver SICAV delivered +29.19 percent, capturing the full force of silver’s explosive +12.42 percent weekly surge. The concentrated silver exposure that drove December’s performance continues to compound.
Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program followed with +21.37 percent, extending its remarkable run. Over the past three months, Mulvaney has gained more than +70 percent, demonstrating the compounding power of sustained trend exposure. Melissinos Trading’s Eupatrid Commodity returned +14.68 percent, reflecting strength in commodity-focused systematic approaches.
Purple Valley Capital’s Diversified Trend 1 added +13.56 percent, while Superfund appeared multiple times through Green Gold 1.5x at +11.36 percent and Green Gold 1x at +8.80 percent, capturing gold’s advance to all-time highs above $5,296.
Transtrend’s Tulip Trend Fund contributed +8.57 percent, Drury Capital’s Diversified Trend-Following Program added +8.35 percent, Lynx Asset Management’s Lynx 1.5x returned +8.03 percent, and EMC Capital’s Balance Program delivered +7.84 percent.
Takeaway: February’s early turbulence passed. The metals breakout arrived. And those who held their positions captured it all. Discipline through disruption defined the month’s winners.
Monthly Dispersion Summary: February 2026
February’s dispersion profile reflected resilience through turbulence followed by explosive recovery.
Key Statistics:
Max Return: +29.19 percent
Min Return: -3.84 percent
Mean: +4.01 percent
Median: +3.43 percent
Standard Deviation: 4.08
Reporting Programs: 109
Most programs clustered between +1 and +6 percent, indicating broad participation in the month’s gains. The right tail extended powerfully, driven by concentrated precious metals exposure. Losses stayed contained despite the early-month energy reversal, with the worst performer declining only -3.84 percent.
Dispersion remained comparable to January, with the standard deviation at 4.08 versus 4.15 the prior month. This consistency reflects persistent trend conditions despite the three-phase structure of February’s price action.
Allocator View:
- Patience through mid-month turbulence was rewarded with strong final results.
- Downside stayed controlled despite violent energy reversals.
- The metals explosion transformed a potentially modest month into another strong result.
Top 10 List: 5-Year CAGR — February 2026
The five-year lens continued to distinguish long-term compounders from episodic performers.
Mulvaney Capital Management’s Global Diversified Program extended its commanding lead with a 53.06 percent CAGR, up from 51.09 percent in January. The three-month rally has added nearly 9 percentage points to the five-year compound rate, a testament to the power of sustained trend exposure during favourable conditions.
Fieldhouse Capital’s Global Managed Futures followed with a 32.93 percent CAGR. Bowmoor Capital’s Global Alpha Fund delivered 20.13 percent, balancing strong returns with controlled drawdowns.
Institutional leaders including CFM ISTrends 1.5x at 18.08 percent, AQR Managed Futures HV Strategy at 16.20 percent, and East Coast ECCM STF at 14.86 percent anchored the upper tier.
Superfund Green Silver SICAV at 14.66 percent, Superfund Green Gold 1x at 13.98 percent, and DUNN Capital’s programs rounded out the top ten.
The benchmark’s 6.28 percent CAGR highlights the degree of separation achieved by coherent long-term design.
Dispersion of 5-Year CAGR: Summary — February 2026
Five-year dispersion widened further as top performers extended their lead.
Most programs clustered between +2 and +10 percent CAGR, forming the institutional core. The mean CAGR settled at 5.76 percent with a median of 5.05 percent. The right tail extended dramatically, with Mulvaney’s 53.06 percent CAGR now standing as a clear outlier. The left tail extended to -8.67 percent, reflecting ongoing selection pressure on weaker designs.
Long-term compounding remained anchored in process, not regime.
Top 10 List: 5-Year MAR Leaders — February 2026
Efficiency stayed concentrated among programs combining return with controlled drawdowns.
Winton Capital Management’s Multi-Strategy led with a MAR of 2.72 and a maximum drawdown of just 4.10 percent. CFM IS Trends Fund and CFM ISTrends 1.5x followed with MARs of 1.91 and 1.89 respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversification and measured leverage.
Programs such as Bowmoor, Fieldhouse, Campbell, AQR, Bastiat, and AQR Managed Futures HV filled out the efficiency spectrum, each expressing a distinct balance between return ambition and risk governance.
CAGR vs. Max Drawdown — Top 10 MAR Strategies
The top MAR scatterplot revealed clear efficiency regimes.
Low-volatility leaders occupied the lower-left region, demonstrating that exceptional risk-adjusted returns do not require large drawdowns. Institutional middle-ground strategies formed a dense centre, balancing competitive returns with moderate risk profiles. Higher-return designs extended into the upper-right, reflecting the trade-off between absolute performance and drawdown tolerance.
The benchmark sat well below most leaders, underscoring the efficiency achieved through coherent design.
Efficiency did not arise from avoiding drawdowns, but from surviving them without losing participation.
CAGR% vs Max DD% Scatterplot: All Programs — February 2026
The full-universe scatterplot reaffirmed the industry’s shape.
Most programs clustered between 0 and 12 percent CAGR with drawdowns between 10 and 35 percent. A small group of right-tail outliers demonstrated the power of convexity, generating returns well above the core while accepting larger drawdowns. The left tail highlighted the cost of weak design, with several programs showing negative CAGRs alongside significant drawdowns.
Durability was common. Exceptional outcomes were rare.
Conclusion — February 2026
February tested the trend-following community in ways January did not. Early energy reversals and mid-month cooling challenged positioning. Yet the month’s narrative reinforced a core principle: recoveries, when they come, come quickly. The benchmark gained +4.01 percent as metals exploded in the final week and those who held their positions captured it all.
Long-term results continued to strengthen. The industry core compounded further, the right tail extended dramatically with Mulvaney now above 53 percent CAGR, and efficiency leaders demonstrated that controlled drawdowns remain central to sustainability.
Allocator takeaway: The patience required of trend-following allocators is not passive tolerance of losses. It is active belief in the systematic process during periods of temporary disruption. February rewarded that belief.
February reminded the trend-following community why discipline matters. The early-month turbulence passed. The metals breakout arrived. And those who held their positions captured it all.
Congratulations to February’s Rising Stars and enduring Trend Titans for delivering exceptional, process-driven performance.
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