THIS WEEK IN TREND: 25th September 2026

This was a week that looked like rotation on the performance board and persistence underneath it.

Soft Commodities and Meats, the two weakest sectors a week ago, finished first and second, gaining 2.60 percent and 1.93 percent. Crypto, Energy and Metals, three of last week’s four strongest sectors, finished among the bottom four. Six of ten sectors changed sign.

Yet trend strength improved.

The TTU Trend Barometer rose 7 points from 45 percent to 52 percent, recovering half of the previous week’s fall while remaining inside the Neutral band. The five-week progression now reads 55, 55, 59, 45 and 52, with the 10-day rate of change Neutral.

The Barometer sits just 3 points below the 55 percent threshold separating Neutral from a favourable environment and 22 points above its late-July low of 30 percent.

At first glance, the performance board suggests a substantial reversal.

But much of what changed was not the underlying trend. It was last week’s interruptions ending.

Metals provides the clearest example.

The sector fell 1.92 percent, reversing the previous week’s 1.14 percent gain. Silver lost 3.50 percent, Palladium 3.30 percent, Gold 2.34 percent and Platinum 1.59 percent.

Those declines were not new trends. They were existing ones resuming.

Silver, Palladium, Gold and Platinum have been declining since February. Copper, the one metal moving in the opposite direction, gained another 1.11 percent and remains close to the highest level on its chart.

Every Metal moved with the structure beneath it.

Bonds told much the same story.

All four maturities fell, restoring the uniformity across the curve that disappeared a week ago. The 30 Year Bond lost 2.31 percent, the 10 Year Note 0.92 percent, the 5 Year Note 0.52 percent and the 2 Year Note 0.16 percent.

All four are now at new lows on their charts.

The declines also grew with maturity, restoring the ordering we saw a fortnight ago.

Grains moved the other way but told essentially the same story.

The sector gained 1.61 percent, with six of eight contracts higher. Rough Rice surged 6.04 percent, Soybean Meal gained 3.46 percent and Oats another 3.38 percent.

Rough Rice and Soybean Meal reached new highs. Oats extended its breakout. Soybeans sit at the top of their chart and Canola remains close to its high.

Last week the sector average suggested a pause while the individual charts remained strong.

This week the average caught up with the charts.

The week’s largest sector gain came from Soft Commodities, up 2.60 percent after falling 5.19 percent a week earlier.

Orange Juice surged 7.24 percent, the largest gain on the board. Cocoa gained 5.48 percent, Cotton 1.92 percent and Sugar 1.43 percent.

But direction alone did not tell the story.

Cocoa, Cotton and Sugar moved with the advances beneath them. Orange Juice produced a large rally inside a decline that has run for most of the year. Coffee edged lower inside its own decline.

The sector average reversed. The structures underneath it did not all do so.

Energy was the important exception.

After three consecutive sector gains, Energy fell 1.36 percent. Heating Oil plunged 7.72 percent, the largest move anywhere on the board. Gasoline RBOB fell 4.04 percent and WTI 3.82 percent.

Natural Gas went the other way, gaining 6.02 percent.

A week ago the petroleum contracts carried Energy higher. This week they reversed sharply from the upper reaches of their charts.

Energy supplied most of the week’s interruptions rather than its persistence.

Currencies remained unusually coherent.

Seven of eight contracts fell while the US Dollar Index gained 0.78 percent, the only positive return in the basket.

The same dollar factor that returned a week ago therefore held for a second consecutive week, with the Dollar Index now close to the top of the range that has contained it all year.

And the SG Trend Index continued to make money.

The index reached +16.05 percent year to date, up from +14.68 percent a week ago, while September month to date advanced from +3.23 percent to +4.47 percent.

That was its seventh consecutive weekly improvement.

More importantly, the weekly gain accelerated from 0.50 percentage points to 1.37 percentage points, while the Barometer recovered from 45 percent to 52 percent.

For the second consecutive week, trend strength and returns moved together.

There is an interesting wrinkle.

Six of the ten largest individual moves still ran against the structures beneath them.

Orange Juice, Natural Gas and Feeder Cattle produced large rallies inside existing declines. Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB and WTI fell against advances that had carried them toward the upper ends of their charts.

Much of the persistence was quieter.

The 30 Year Bond, Gold, Platinum, Oats, Soybeans, Sugar, the Nasdaq 100 and the US Dollar Index all moved in the direction their charts were already pointing.

There were more persistent structures among those quieter moves than reversals among the week’s leaders. That is consistent with the Barometer’s recovery to 52 percent.

And that brings us back to the distinction that matters.

Bonds and precious metals fell and paid a portfolio positioned with those declines.

Energy also fell, but charged a portfolio positioned with the petroleum advances.

Orange Juice rose 7.24 percent and hurt a portfolio carrying short exposure.

Rough Rice rose 6.04 percent and rewarded one positioned with its climb.

Up and down tell us what the market did. They do not tell us whether the move helped a trend follower.

What matters is whether the market moved with the structure the portfolio was following.

So the question for next week is whether the Barometer’s recovery continues toward the favourable band or settles inside Neutral.

Energy bears watching after the sharp reversal in the petroleum contracts. Bonds are at new lows across all four maturities. Precious metals have resumed their declines while Copper remains close to its high.

Grains now have four contracts at the top of their charts. The US Dollar Index is approaching the top of its range. And September closes next Wednesday with the SG Trend Index currently +4.47 percent for the month.

In each case the question is the same one it always is:

Does the structure persist?

For trend followers, up or down was never the central question.

Persistence was.

The opportunity was directional, but not directionally biased.

Top Movers (Up)

Orange Juice (Soft Commodities) +7.24 percent
Rough Rice (Grains) +6.04 percent
Natural Gas (Energy) +6.02 percent
Cocoa (Soft Commodities) +5.48 percent
Feeder Cattle (Meats) +4.39 percent

Top Movers (Down)

Heating Oil (Energy) -7.72 percent
Gasoline RBOB (Energy) -4.04 percent
Crude Oil WTI (Energy) -3.82 percent
Silver (Metals) -3.50 percent
Palladium (Metals) -3.30 percent

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