Trend Following Performance Report: August 2026

Persistence Returns

July gave trend followers plenty of movement, then took away the trends.

August gave them something more useful: moves that lasted.

All three major trend benchmarks finished higher after two consecutive negative months. The TTU Trend Following Index gained 3.63%, followed by the BTOP50 at 2.95% and the SG Trend Index at 2.94%. Each finished ahead of the S&P 500 Total Return Index, which rose 2.72%.

The order was the reverse of July’s. The TTU Index, last among the three when trends broke, led when established trends began to hold.

A Steady Recovery, Uneven Rewards

The TTU Trend Barometer ended July at 30, its lowest reading of the 2026 cycle. It rose every week in August:

30 → 34 → 39 → 50 → 55

That steady climb makes the month look straightforward. The returns tell a more interesting story.

In the first week, metals and equities rallied, and Sugar broke out of its range. Yet the SG Trend Index fell 0.75%. Many of the strongest moves were new. Trend followers had little reason to be positioned for them yet.

The second week was more productive. Equities extended their advance, the VIX and Meats continued lower, and Grains strengthened. These were moves already under way. The SG Trend Index recovered to +0.83% month to date.

Then came August’s largest jump in the Barometer, from 39 to 50. Bitcoin surged, precious metals recovered and equities fell. The markets were moving, but much of that movement ran against existing trends. The SG Trend Index added only 0.32 percentage points that week.

The Barometer measured a stronger trend environment. It did not promise that every move would pay the positions already held.

Grains Carry the Close

The final week brought the clearest example of August’s theme.

Only 21 of 49 contracts rose, down from 31 the week before, and the average move across the board shrank sharply. On the surface, there appeared to be less happening.

But Grains rose 5.63%, with every contract higher. Wheat gained 12.12%, and seven of the eight grain contracts finished at or near the highs on their charts. The sector had now advanced for three consecutive weeks.

Those moves had time to become trends. They were also moving in the direction their charts had already pointed.

The SG Trend Index reached +1.66% by the final weekly close, then finished August at +2.94% after a strong closing session on 31 August.

The week with the narrowest breadth was one of the more useful weeks for trend followers. What mattered was where the movement occurred and whether positions were already in place to capture it.

The Benchmark Order Flips

July’s reversals hurt the pure trend benchmarks most. The broader BTOP50, which includes strategies beyond trend following, lost less.

August showed the other side of that construction. Trends held long enough for committed trend portfolios to participate, and the TTU Trend Following Index led with a 3.63% gain. The BTOP50 and SG Trend Index finished almost together, separated by just one basis point.

That monthly win does not put TTU at the top for the year. At the end of August, BTOP50 stood at +11.13% year to date, the SG Trend Index at +11.07%, and the TTU Trend Following Index at +9.76%.

There is also a revision to keep in mind when comparing these figures with last month’s summary. Late reporting changed TTU’s July return from the provisional -1.63% to -1.98%. August recovered most of what the Index lost across June and July, but not quite all of it.

The TTU Index contained 52 active programs at the August cut-off, with 48 reporting. Its August return may still be revised when the remaining four report.

The Serenity Selection Responds

The TTU Top 5 Serenity selection gained 5.62% in August, ending three consecutive negative months. That was the strongest result among the trend composites covered in the report.

Its trailing twelve-month return rose to 40.19%, and its year-to-date return reached 20.18%. All five programs reported for August.

A five-program selection can move more sharply than a broad index. June’s -4.27% loss showed the difficult side of that concentration. August showed what can happen when trends persist long enough for the portfolio’s positions to work. Neither month alone describes its long-term behaviour.

What August Told Us

July’s lesson was that movement is not the same as trend. August added the next piece.

Even a steadily improving trend environment does not deliver returns in a steady line. New moves may arrive before a portfolio can participate. Large counter-trend rallies may lift the Barometer while making existing positions uncomfortable. A quieter week can pay well if the markets that move are the ones already being held.

By month-end, the Barometer had recovered 25 points to 55, reaching the boundary of a favourable trending environment. The equity uptrend remained in place, and Grains had delivered the persistence that was missing in July.

Trend followers do not need every market to move at once.

They need some of those moves to keep going.

Read the full Trend Following Performance Report here.