“When pressure builds against the wall, survival depends on releasing before it breaks.” Expectancy Fades, the Path Remains In earlier posts, we argued why expectancy is a false comfort. Expectancy, with its neat equations and tidy averages, tempts traders into...
Expectancy is the map. The path is survival — and only those who can survive it endure. Expanding on Expectancy vs. Survival In our recent post, Expectancy vs. Survival — Why the Outlier Hunter Thinks Differently, we challenged the industry’s...
Ask most traders how to measure an edge, and they’ll point you to expectancy: Expectancy = (Win% × Average Win) – (Loss% × Average Loss) It feels neat, logical, even scientific. If the number is positive, you supposedly have an...
In our last blog post, Fractals, Diversification, and the Myth of Dilution, we raised significant feedback on diversification when it relates to fractal systems. In this post we drill further into this principle. The Key Question Are financial markets fractal...
Most investors think diversification waters down returns. They are wrong. Dead wrong. This belief comes from the neat Gaussian world of classical finance. Add more bets, and risk falls with the square root of the number of bets. Smooth curves....
Every investor faces the same decision: do you smooth the ride or chase the extraordinary? On one side lies the comfort of mixed allocation. Blend trend following with mean reversion and you’ll get smoother equity curves, smaller drawdowns, and something...
The Ephemeral Nature of Systems Every system has a life cycle. A seed becomes a tree, a business rises and falls, a financial regime dominates for decades before giving way to something new. Biological, social, financial, and physical systems are...
Not all trend followers play the same game. In Episode 361, Richard Brennan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to break down four archetypes of systematic trend following — Replicators, Core Diversifiers, Crisis Risk Offsets, and Outlier Hunters. They explore the debates that...
“All who follow trends may share a compass – but not all walk the same path.” I. Introduction – Same Label, Different Games Trend following is often discussed as if it is a single, unified strategy, a black box that...
We’re pleased to be recognised by The Hedge Fund Journal at the 2025 CTA & Discretionary Trader Awards. The ECCM Systematic Trend Fund has been named “Best Performing Fund over 5 Years – Trend Follower (AUM < $100m)”. This recognition...
