“The Board Reversed, and the Barometer Fell 22 Points Out of Neutral“ Trend Following Weekly Report Almost exactly as many markets rose this week as rose last week. They were largely the opposite markets. Energy went from leading the board...
Listen to the full episode here: Why the Best Portfolios Are Built to Be Wrong: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/why-the-best-portfolios-are-built-to-be-wrong-ft-david-dredge-richard-brennan/ I have just spent two hours with Dave Dredge and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and I am still thinking about it. Here is the odd thing...
Previous: Episode 2 – The Two-Cent DollarNext: Episode 4 – Risk Is Not Variance A safety limit breached twice as often as promised. A quiet bond market that authorised sixteen times leverage. The Evidence Base: Over 640,000 daily observations across...
Previous: Episode 1. The Tyranny of the SquareNext: Episode 3. Six Ways the Assumption Breaks 4.6% of trades make all the money. Here is what the industry scoreboard pays a manager for catching one. The Evidence Base: Over 640,000 daily...
Next: Episode 2. The Two-Cent Dollar Modern finance measures risk by squaring. Across 68 futures markets and 42 years, here is what that square hides. The Evidence Base: Over 640,000 daily observations across 68 global futures markets, spanning more than...
“Crude Extends Its Breakout as Trend Followers Are Paid in a Neutral Environment“ Trend Following Weekly Report The question this column left open a week ago has an answer. Energy held its breakout and led the board again, up 3.51...
The room goes quiet. “Sold.” That single word ends an auction. But it also hides one of the deepest truths about markets. The textbooks call it price discovery, as though a true value had been buried somewhere and the auction...
For five straight months, trend following in 2026 had told a simple story. Trends were there, the benchmarks captured them, and the numbers went up. June broke that story in the most instructive way possible: the trend environment got measurably...
When Better Conditions Cost Money: The Month of the Turn After May delivered the quietest month of the year and its narrowest dispersion, June reversed both. Every benchmark in the Battle of the Trend Following Indexes finished negative, where in...
“Two portfolios can post the same number. Only one is standing here.” Picture two bridges across the same canyon. The first hangs from a single cable, engineered to perfection and rated to carry ten thousand tonnes. The second hangs from...
