Notes from a Real Conversation with Keith McCullough, and the argument underneath it Listen to the Video This week I had the pleasure of sitting down with Keith McCullough for one of Hedgeye’s Real Conversations. It was the small hours...
A drunkard, a cliff, and the quiet arithmetic that ruins traders who are right on average “Fairness does not protect you when one of the outcomes is irreversible.” A question worth three quarters of a million dollars Imagine a game...
A conversation with Ponch Rivera and Moose McGrath on No Way Out Some conversations move forward because both sides already share a vocabulary. The recent episode of No Way Out with Brian “Ponch” Rivera and Mark “Moose” McGrath was one...
Why position sizing in pure trend following is determinate, once the domain of the question is properly drawn. Carlo Zarattini published a thoughtful piece earlier this week on position sizing in trend following. He compared three approaches against the same...
A conversation has been circulating in the managed futures community recently, and it deserves closer examination. The argument runs something like this: broad diversification across hundreds of markets delivers diminishing returns, short-term models are a drag on performance, risk controls...
Every financial crisis produces the same confession. Risk models failed. The event was unprecedented. Nobody could have predicted it. But what if the problem was never prediction? What if the problem was the model itself? Modern finance is built on...
A Synopsis of the Complete Twelve-Part Series Most writing about financial markets treats price as the primary object of study. Analysts dissect earnings. Economists forecast rates. Strategists predict regimes. The entire apparatus of modern markets is organised around a...
How to act decisively while accepting that certainty is not available The Fog That Does Not Lift There is a kind of fog that lifts. You wait, conditions change, and clarity returns. The path that was hidden becomes visible. Patience...
Why how much you risk matters more than what you risk it on The Load A bridge can bear a certain weight. Below that threshold, traffic flows safely. Above it, the structure fails. The failure is not gradual. The bridge...
How the same price series can trend, mean-revert, and appear random depending on when you look The Coastline How long is a coastline? The answer depends on the length of your ruler. Measure with a hundred-kilometre ruler and you...
