“Two investors can run the same trades. Only one of them had to be right about anything.” Compounding is one of those ideas in finance that sounds simple until you actually live through it. A return is not earned in...
“Two portfolios can post the same number. Only one is standing here.” Picture two bridges across the same canyon. The first hangs from a single cable, engineered to perfection and rated to carry ten thousand tonnes. The second hangs from...
“The system did not fail suddenly. It finished learning the wrong lesson.” When complex systems fail, we often assume someone made a mistake. A bad model. A missed risk. An unforeseen event. A tail that no one could have...
“What looked like control was only stability borrowed from the past.” The feeling of control is not the same thing as control. The traders most vulnerable to catastrophic failure are rarely naive. More often, they are highly sophisticated. They optimise....
