“Survival is not proof of superiority. It is evidence of fit.” There is a familiar story traders like to tell themselves. The best ideas win. Superior insight survives. Over time, skill rises to the top. Markets, in this story,...
“What looked like control was only stability borrowed from the past.” The feeling of control is not the same thing as control. The traders most vulnerable to catastrophic failure are rarely naive. More often, they are highly sophisticated. They optimise....
Market averages are not what they appear to be. The standard framing presents average market returns as a benchmark against which active strategies should be measured: beat the average and you have demonstrated edge, fall short and you...
