As an ongoing feature of this website, we decided that we would go the extra mile and track the performance of a large number of long term established Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA’s) reported by the NilssonHedge crowd-sourced CTA database.
May 2019 saw another positive performance result for the Commodity Trading Advisors as a group. This is the fourth consecutive month in a row for positive returns in the CTA Composite Index (12)....however despite the solid performance of the CTA's as a whole, we saw a slight negative result for the Trend Following Global CTA's.
While offering nothing to crow about, a flat return from the systematic trend following funds for the month is certainly a welcome result considering equities represented by the S&P500 TR Index (Total Return) plummeted 7.7% in November which added to the pain of Septembers plunge bringing the S&P500 TR Index to a 12.2% drawdown from it's equity high in August 2018.
October 2018 has tested the resolve of trend followers where we have suffered a similar fate to February 2018 and have witnessed a fairly nasty whipsaw in Energy, Fixed Income and Equity markets. Given that we had just caught the waves of September's volatility surge....all our hopes for the emergence of some good enduring swells in our direction were shattered as mean reversion started to enter the mix as markets rebounded sharply from their maximum adverse excursions resulting in some crazy double-up formations and some spectacular wipe-outs.
September 2018 saw the re-emergence of volatility in the equity markets with an ensuing decline in the S&P 500 TR Index (includes dividends) of 6.83% for the month. Does this small blip in an otherwise linear ascent in the Index since January 2009 signal further volatility ahead....or like February 2018, will we see a return to the progressive surge of the Index to new highs?