The Fingerprint The two forces are not symmetric. Positive feedback is gentle and sustained. Negative feedback is intense and brief. The ratio between them is the fingerprint that distinguishes every asset class. The feedback structure has been described as two...
The Structure Persists Forty years of algorithmic trading, quantitative finance, and massive capital deployment have not diminished the feedback structure. The adaptive markets hypothesis predicts convergence. The data shows none. There are exactly three possible states for the feedback structure...
Proving It Is Not Random The variance ratio was supposed to kill the random walk. It does something better. It reveals the spectrum’s two forces in a completely different test. Act I revealed the coupled spectrum. Episodes 1 through 3...
“Energy Explodes, Metals Surge, and Equities Reverse on Geopolitics and Tariff Shock“ Trend Following Weekly Report Spectacular performance. Deteriorating signal quality. And a barometer that fell eleven percentage points in the same week that crude oil surged eighteen percent. The...
The Trend-Equity Paradox Everyone in the industry knows that trend-following provides crisis alpha. Nobody has explained why. The coupled spectrum does. We identified the twenty worst months for the S&P 500 across four decades. These are the months that destroy...
“Regime transitions are rarely gentle. The portfolio absorbs the shock, releases the risk, and prepares for what comes next.” About the ATS Classic Trend Benchmarking Portfolio The ATS Classic Trend Portfolio is a purpose-built benchmarking model designed to illustrate how...
Just the Turtles: February Review, Energy Breakouts & Myth Busting Episode 012 is live. Rich Brennan, Jerry Parker, and Adam Havryliv go it alone this month. No guests, no filter, just three classic trend followers who have never been happier...
The Coupled Spectrum Sixty-eight markets. One system. The coupling never switches off. Episode 1 proved that the near-zero autocorrelation is a lie. Beneath it, every market oscillates between periods where moves persist and periods where they chop back and forth....
Zero Doesn’t Mean Nothing How we looked beneath the most quoted statistic in finance and found a machine that should not exist. Phase 1 of this series proved that markets have memory. Across sixty-eight futures contracts spanning eight asset classes...
“Orange Juice Surges, Meats Lead, and Equities Continue Their Slide“ Trend Following Weekly Report Rotation. Broadening. And a barometer that accelerated higher even as its biggest engine took a rest. The fourth week of March delivered something more nuanced than...
