“Two investors can run the same trades. Only one of them had to be right about anything.” Compounding is one of those ideas in finance that sounds simple until you actually live through it. A return is not earned in...
Previous: Episode 5 – What Works and What We Got Wrong Five episodes, 68 futures markets, 42 years. An empirical audit of the number modern finance calls risk. A Series Synopsis A five-part empirical investigation into whether the number modern...
Previous: Episode 4 Addendum – The Unwritten SequenceNext: Series Synopsis Diversification does not cure fat tails. The controlled experiment, the prescription, and five failed hypotheses. The Evidence Base: Over 640,000 daily observations across 68 global futures markets, spanning more than...
Previous: Episode 4 – Risk Is Not VarianceNext: Episode 5 – What Works And What We Got Wrong Why identical returns produce different investors Three interactive experiments on one objection to Episode 4, and what answering it costs. Episode 4...
Previous: Episode 3 – Six Ways the Assumption BreaksNext: Episode 4 Addendum – The Unwritten Sequence Shuffle forty years of returns like a deck of cards. Every statistic stays identical. The worst loss moves 50 points. The Evidence Base: Over...
Previous: Episode 2 – The Two-Cent DollarNext: Episode 4 – Risk Is Not Variance A safety limit breached twice as often as promised. A quiet bond market that authorised sixteen times leverage. The Evidence Base: Over 640,000 daily observations across...
Previous: Episode 1. The Tyranny of the SquareNext: Episode 3. Six Ways the Assumption Breaks 4.6% of trades make all the money. Here is what the industry scoreboard pays a manager for catching one. The Evidence Base: Over 640,000 daily...
Next: Episode 2. The Two-Cent Dollar Modern finance measures risk by squaring. Across 68 futures markets and 42 years, here is what that square hides. The Evidence Base: Over 640,000 daily observations across 68 global futures markets, spanning more than...
“Two portfolios can post the same number. Only one is standing here.” Picture two bridges across the same canyon. The first hangs from a single cable, engineered to perfection and rated to carry ten thousand tonnes. The second hangs from...
The fifty greatest trends in forty years of futures markets, and what they reveal about luck, selection, and the futility of picking winners Warren Buffett, the most celebrated stock picker who has ever lived, is disarmingly honest about where his...
