The Actuary and the Abyss How life assurance learned to measure uncertainty across a population, and what finance misunderstood when it carried the method into markets. London, 1762. A new society begins offering life assurance on a principle that now...
The Coffee House and the Bell Curve How Lloyd’s coffee house turned information into an insurance market, and how a beautiful mathematical idea changed the way finance understood risk. London, 1688. Tower Street runs east from the Monument towards the...
The Sea Does Not Negotiate How the merchants of Venice developed an architecture of survival, and what their response to uncertainty can still teach finance today. Imagine Venice around 1250. A notary’s office occupies the first floor of a building...
Fourteen markets rose. Trend strength and returns reached the top of the sequence. This was a week in which far fewer markets rose and the money improved anyway. The TTU Trend Barometer climbed from 55 percent to 59 percent, entering...
The Map That Ate the Territory Every generation develops a new certainty about risk, and each new certainty eventually breaks on the same rock. Stockholm, December 1997. Myron Scholes and Robert Merton receive the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences...
Out of Equilibrium The Santa Fe Revolution That’s Reshaping Finance Watch the Episode SERIES OVERVIEW Why do trends exist? For a trend follower, this is the fundamental question. For decades, much of mainstream financial theory struggled to explain why persistent...
There is a question that has tormented philosophers for centuries. Leibniz asked it. Heidegger called it the fundamental question of metaphysics. It still appears in late-night conversations, usually when the room has fallen quiet and someone has strayed a little...
The Programme, Complete Seven components. One integrated system. A synthesis of the System Anatomy Series: what each episode argued, how the components depend on one another, and why the intelligence was never in any single rule. Previous: System Anatomy 7:...
The Barometer held. The returns caught up. This was a week in which the same amount of trend did a great deal more work. The TTU Trend Barometer held at 55 percent, unchanged from last week and at the threshold...
Execution and Process The architecture only exists in the real world if we actually execute it. Previous: System Anatomy 6: Rollover Mechanics | Next: Synopsis: The Programme, Complete A circuit breaker does not make the electrical system work. Most of...
